Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

doi:10.1007/s11707-011-0198-6

Front Earth Sci

0, Vol.

Issue () : 350-362 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0198-6

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

William B. Samuels¹(

), David E. Amstutz¹, Heather A. Crowley²

1. Science Applications International Corporation, 1710 SAIC Drive, McLean, VA 22102, USA; 2. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, 3801 Centerpoint Drive, Suite 500, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA

Download: PDF(819 KB) HTML
Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks

Abstract

The purpose of this project was to: 1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation, 2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model, 3) evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model, and 4) recommend future studies. Effects of climate change on winds, sea ice, ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using high-resolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings. The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios. Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind, sea ice cover and concentration, and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories. Because of the pace at which conditions are changing, BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.

Keywords Arctic Ocean climate change oil spill risk analysis

Corresponding Author(s): Samuels William B.,Email:william.b.samuels@saic.com

Issue Date: 05 December 2011

Cite this article:

William B. Samuels,David E. Amstutz,Heather A. Crowley. Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis[J]. Front Earth Sci, 0, (): 350-362.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-011-0198-6
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y0/V/I/350

Fig.1 Map of Alaska OCS planning areas (Courtesy of BOEMRE)

Fig.2 BOEMRE oil spill modeling program (Courtesy of Walter Johnson, BOEMRE)

Fig.3 The Chukchi/Beaufort regional setting (Courtesy of Tom Weingartner, University of Alaska)

Fig.4 Climatology of surface atmospheric circulation: sea level pressure and surface wind stress (Courtesy of Xiangdong Zhang, University of Alaska)

Fig.5 Winter, summer and annual sea ice extent (Courtesy of Walt Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center)

Fig.6 Ice retreat and upper ocean warming (Courtesy of Mike Steele, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington; SST data from )

Fig.7 Trend in arctic september sea ice extent (Courtesy of Muyin Wang, University of Washington)

Fig.8 Assimilating QuikSCAT winds into the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model (Courtesy of Jing Zhang, North Carolina A&T University)

Fig.9 AOMIP common modeling domain (Courtesy of Andrey Proshutinsky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)

Fig.10 RACM domains for coupling and topography (Courtesy of Wieslaw Maslowski, Naval Postgraduate School)

Fig.11 Volume averaged topostrophy from nine models (Courtesy of Greg Holloway, Fisheries and Oceans Canada)

1	BOEMRE (2010). Alaska annual studies plan. USDepartment of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, Alaska October2010
2	BOEMRE (2011). Oil spill modeling program. http://www.boemre.gov/eppd/sciences/osmp/ (accessed 28June2011)
3	Environmental Working Group (EWG) (1997). Joint US-Russian atlas of the Arctic Ocean for the winter period [CD-ROM], Natl. Snow and Ice Data Cent., Boulder, Colorado
4	Environmental Working Group (EWG) (1998). Joint US-Russian atlas of the Arctic Ocean for the summer period [CD-ROM], Natl. Snow and Ice Data Cent., Boulder, Colorado
5	Hedstrom K S (2009). Technical manual for a coupled sea-ice/ocean circulation model (version 3). OCS Study MMS 2009–062
6	Holloway G (2008). Observing global ocean topostrophy. J Geophys Res , 113(C7): C07054 doi: 10.1029/2007JC004635
7	Holloway G, Proshutinsky A (2007). Role of tides in Arctic ocean/ice climate. J Geophys Res , 112(C4): C04S06 doi: 10.1029/2006JC003643
8	McPhee M G, Proshutinsky A, Morison J H, Steele M, Alkire M B (2009). Rapid change in freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean. Geophys Res Lett , 36(10): L10602 doi: 10.1029/2009GL037525
9	North Pole Environmental Observatory (NPEO) 2011. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/ (accessed 28June2011)
10	Overland J, Walsh J, Wang M, Richter-Menge J, Comiso J, Meier W, Nghiem S, Perovich D, Proshutinsky A, Morison J (2008). Arctic report card 2008: Tracking recent environmental changes. Publications, Agencies and Staff of the US Department of Commerce
11	Reynolds R W, Smith T M, Liu C, Chelton D B, Casey K S, Schlax M G (2007). Daily high-resolution blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim , 20(22): 5473–5496 doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1
12	Roberts A, Cassano J, D?scher R, Hinzman L, Holland M, Mitsudera H, Sumi A, Walsh J E (2010). A science plan for regional Arctic system modeling. International Arctic Research Center Tech. Paper 10– 0001, 47
13	Steele M, Ermold W, Zhang J (2008). Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years. Geophys Res Lett , 35(2): L02614 doi: 10.1029/2007GL031651
14	Steele M, Zhang J, Ermold W (2010). Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt. J Geophys Res , 115(C11): C11004 doi: 10.1029/2009JC005849
15	Stroeve J, Holland M M, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M (2007). Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophys Res Lett , 34(9): L09501 doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703
16	Wang M, Overland J E (2009). A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?Geophys Res Lett , 36(7): L07502 doi: 10.1029/2009GL037820
17	Woodgate R A, Aagaard K, Weingartner T J (2005). Monthly temperature, salinity, and transport variability of the Bering Strait through flow. Geophys Res Lett , 32: L04601

[1]	Jing TIAN, Shenglian GUO, Jiabo YIN, Zhengke PAN, Feng XIONG, Shaokun HE. Quantifying both climate and land use/cover changes on runoff variation in Han River basin, China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2022, 16(3): 711-733.
[2]	Xiaocha WEI, Qiuwen ZHOU, Ya LUO, Mingyong CAI, Xu ZHOU, Weihong YAN, Dawei PENG, Ji ZHANG. Vegetation dynamics and its response to driving factors in typical karst regions, Guizhou Province, China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2021, 15(1): 167-183.
[3]	Fangyan ZHU, Heng WANG, Mingshi LI, Jiaojiao DIAO, Wenjuan SHEN, Yali ZHANG, Hongji WU. Characterizing the effects of climate change on short-term post-disturbance forest recovery in southern China from Landsat time-series observations (1988–2016)[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2020, 14(4): 816-827.
[4]	Marwa Gamal Mohamed ALI, Mahmoud Mohamed IBRAHIM, Ahmed El BAROUDY, Michael FULLEN, El-Said Hamad OMAR, Zheli DING, Ahmed Mohammed Saad KHEIR. Climate change impact and adaptation on wheat yield, water use and water use efficiency at North Nile Delta[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2020, 14(3): 522-536.
[5]	Sukh TUMENJARGAL, Steven R. FASSNACHT, Niah B.H. VENABLE, Alison P. KINGSTON, Maria E. FERNÁNDEZ-GIMÉNEZ, Batjav BATBUYAN, Melinda J. LAITURI, Martin KAPPAS, G. ADYABADAM. Variability and change of climate extremes from indigenous herder knowledge and at meteorological stations across central Mongolia[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2020, 14(2): 286-297.
[6]	Soheila SAFARYAN, Mohsen TAVAKOLI, Noredin ROSTAMI, Haidar EBRAHIMI. Evaluation of climate change effects on extreme flows in a catchment of western Iran[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2019, 13(3): 523-534.
[7]	Duanyang XU, Alin SONG, Dajing LI, Xue DING, Ziyu WANG. Assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification of North China from 1981 to 2010[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2019, 13(1): 43-54.
[8]	Chunlan LI, Jun WANG, Richa HU, Shan YIN, Yuhai BAO, Yuwei LI. ICESat/GLAS-derived changes in the water level of Hulun Lake, Inner Mongolia, from 2003 to 2009[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2018, 12(2): 420-430.
[9]	N.B.H. VENABLE. Hydroclimatological data and analyses from a headwaters region of Mongolia as boundary objects in interdisciplinary climate change research[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2017, 11(3): 457-468.
[10]	Le Wang, Shenglian Guo, Xingjun Hong, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong. Projected hydrologic regime changes in the Poyang Lake Basin due to climate change[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2017, 11(1): 95-113.
[11]	Xin JIA, Shuangwen YI, Yonggang SUN, Shuangye WU, Harry F. LEE, Lin WANG, Huayu LU. Spatial and temporal variations in prehistoric human settlement and their influencing factors on the south bank of the Xar Moron River, Northeastern China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2017, 11(1): 137-147.
[12]	Guanghui DONG,Honggao LIU,Yishi YANG,Ying YANG,Aifeng ZHOU,Zhongxin WANG,Xiaoyan REN,Fahu CHEN. Emergence of ancient cities in relation to geopolitical circumstances and climate change during late Holocene in northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(4): 669-682.
[13]	David BRAND,Chathurika WIJEWARDANA,Wei GAO,K. Raja REDDY. Interactive effects of carbon dioxide, low temperature, and ultraviolet-B radiation on cotton seedling root and shoot morphology and growth[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(4): 607-620.
[14]	Jing WU,Lichun TANG,Rayman MOHAMED,Qianting ZHU,Zheng WANG. Modeling and assessing international climate financing[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(2): 253-263.
[15]	He ZHANG, Fulu TAO, Dengpan XIAO, Wenjiao SHI, Fengshan LIU, Shuai ZHANG, Yujie LIU, Meng WANG, Huizi BAI. Contributions of climate, varieties, and agronomic management to rice yield change in the past three decades in China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(2): 315-327.

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed