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Frontiers of Earth Science

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Front. Earth Sci.    2022, Vol. 16 Issue (3) : 711-733    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-021-0918-5
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Quantifying both climate and land use/cover changes on runoff variation in Han River basin, China
Jing TIAN1, Shenglian GUO1(), Jiabo YIN1, Zhengke PAN2, Feng XIONG3, Shaokun HE1
1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2. Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan 430010, China
3. Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China
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Abstract

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) can both exert great impacts on the generation processes of precipitation and runoff. However, previous studies usually neglected considering the contribution component of future LUCC in evaluating changes in hydrological cycles. In this study, an integrated framework is developed to quantify and partition the impact of climate change and LUCC on future runoff evolution. First, a daily bias correction (DBC) method and the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model are used to project future climate and LUCC scenarios, and then future runoff is simulated by the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with different climate and LUCC scenarios. Finally, the uncertainty of future runoff and the contribution rate of the two driving factors are systematically quantified. The Han River basin in China was selected as a case study. Results indicate that: 1) both climate change and LUCC will contribute to future runoff intensification, the variation of future runoff under combined climate and LUCC is larger than these under climate change or LUCC alone; 2) the projected uncertainty of median value of multi-models under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) will reach 18.14% (20.34%), 12.18% (14.71%), 11.01% (13.95%), and 11.41% (14.34%) at Baihe, Ankang, Danjiangkou, and Huangzhuang stations, respectively; 3) the contribution rate of climate change to runoff at Baihe, Ankang, Danjiangkou, and Huangzhuang stations under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) are 91%–98% (84%–94%), while LUCC to runoff under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) only accounts for 2%–9% (6%–16%) in the annual scale. This study may provide useful adaptive strategies for policymakers on future water resources planning and management.
Keywords climate change      LUCC      runoff response      uncertainty analysis      contribution rate     
Corresponding Author(s): Shenglian GUO   
Online First Date: 26 January 2022    Issue Date: 29 December 2022
 Cite this article:   
Jing TIAN,Shenglian GUO,Jiabo YIN, et al. Quantifying both climate and land use/cover changes on runoff variation in Han River basin, China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2022, 16(3): 711-733.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-021-0918-5
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2022/V16/I3/711
Fig.1  Sketch image of the Han River basin.
ID Model name Institution Resolution
(Lon. ×Lat.)		 Reference
G1 BCC-CSM1.1(m) BCC, China 1.125°×1.125° Wu (2012)
G2 BNU-ESM GCESS, China 2.8°×2.8° Ji et al. (2014)
G3 CanESM2 CCCMA, Canada 2.8°×2.8° Yu et al. (2020)
G4 CCSM4 NCAR, USA 1.25°×0.94° Silveira et al. (2019)
G5 CNRM-CM5 CNRM-CERFACS, Canada 1.4°×1.4° Chauvin et al. (2017)
G6 CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 CSIRO-QCCCE, Australia 1.8°×1.8° Zhang et al. (2017)
G7 GFDL-ESM2M NOAA-GFDL, USA 2.5°×2.0° Paymard et al. (2019)
G8 MRI-CGCM3 MRI, Japan 1.1°×1.1° Zhang et al. (2019)
G9 MPI-ESM-LR MPI-M, Germany 1.875°×1.875° Block et al. (2013)
G10 NorESM1-M NCC, Norway 2.5°×1.875° Frey et al. (2021)
Tab.1  The basic information of the selected ten GCMs
Fig.2  Flowchart of the procedure of future climate and LUCC impacts on future runoff.
Fig.3  Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation results of raw and corrected GCM outputs in the Han River basin.
Fig.4  Measured and simulated LUCC of Han River basin.
Parameter Description Sensitivity analysis Calibration
t-statistics p-value Fittedvalue
ALPHA_BF The extinction coefficient of base flow –2.34 0.02 0.5
CH_K2 Hydraulic conductivity coefficient of river 0.93 0.36 70.06
CH_N2 Manning coefficient of river 0.71 0.48 0.06
CN2 Runoff curve number Ⅱ for moisture condition 1.69 0.09 –0.18
GW_DELAY Delayed recharge time of aquifer (d) –1.95 0.05 184.35
GW_REVAP Evaporation coefficient of groundwater –0.93 0.36 0.1
GWQMN Depth of water in the shallow aquifer (mm) –1.03 0.31 0.46
ESCO Soil evaporation compensation coefficient –1.48 0.14 1.06
SFTMP Base temperature of snowmelt (°C) 2.07 0.04 –3.39
SOL_BD Wet bulk density (mg/m3) 3.68 0 0.26
SOL_AWC Soil available water content (mm) 1.49 0.14 0.38
SOL_K Saturated permeability coefficient of the
first soil layer (mm/h)		 3.39 0 –0.43
Tab.2  Parameters sensitivity analysis and calibration results of the SWAT model
Fig.5  Calibration and validation results of the SWAT model.
Fig.6  Observed and simulated monthly runoff hydrographs at four hydrological stations.
Fig.7  Future climate change projected by the ten bias-corrected GCMs under RCP4.5.
The whole basin Base period Future (2021—2060)
(1966—2005) RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Average Average Change Average Change
Precipitation/mm 839.91 882.50 +42.59 890.80 +50.89
Tmax/°C 20.29 21.84 +1.55 22.39 +2.10
Tmin/°C 10.52 11.98 +1.46 12.48 +1.96
Tab.3  The annual average variation of GCMs ensemble of precipitation and temperature in the future periods.
Land use type Historical Future
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Farmland 35.2 34.5 34.2 33.9 33.7
Forest land 40.0 41.0 41.4 42.0 42.8
Grassland 19.2 18.6 18.3 17.7 16.7
Water bodies 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Construction land 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9
Bare land 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Tab.4  Percentages of future LUCC type area in the Han River basin (%).
Fig.8  Comparison of simulated runoff of different stations over Han River basin under the base period and future climate change.
Period Baihe Ankang
Qb QFL variation Qb QFL variation
Annual 721 726 0.69% 542 545 0.55%
Flood season 1187 1201 1.17% 898 910 1.29%
Non-flood season 255 252 –1.28% 187 182 –2.60%
Period Danjiangkou Huangzhuang
Qb QFL variation Qb QFL variation
Annual 1127 1132 0.44% 1607 1609 0.12%
Flood season 1815 1832 0.93% 2451 2486 1.41%
Non-flood season 440 433 –1.55% 764 755 –1.22%
Tab.5  Changes of the projected runoff under LUCC in Han River basin (m3/s)
Fig.9  Annual and monthly runoff over Han River basin in 2021–2060 under climate change (RCP4.5) and LUCC.
Fig.10  Annual and monthly runoff over Han River basin in 2021–2060 under climate change (RCP8.5) and LUCC.
Fig.11  Uncertainty range of future daily precipitation and temperature over Han River basin.
Fig.12  Uncertainty range of future runoff projection of four hydrological stations over Han River basin.
Fig.13  Decomposition of HDSI standard index series at four stations based on future monthly runoff.
Scenarios Stations IMF1 IMF2 IMF3 IMF4 IMF5 IMF6 IMF7
RCP4.5 Baihe 2.99 6.51 14.35 24.79 61.21 121.75 234.35
Ankang 2.84 6.50 16.87 30.91 60.09 120.08 /
Danjiangkou 2.77 6.49 16.52 27.54 60.25 118.76 /
Huangzhuang 2.83 6.10 11.60 26.30 60.09 236.66 /
RCP8.5 Baihe 2.85 6.24 11.52 19.06 48.32 81.17 /
Ankang 2.94 6.53 12.79 29.98 79.00 / /
Danjiangkou 2.68 6.12 11.81 20.14 46.80 116.32 /
Huangzhuang 2.71 6.26 12.01 20.70 48.97 103.97 120.02
Tab.6  Average period of IMF of four hydrological stations in the Han River (month)
Scenarios Stations Baihe Ankang Danjiangkou Huangzhuang
RCP4.5 Climate change 90.70 91.90 92.88 97.95
LUCC 9.30 8.10 7.12 2.05
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
RCP8.5 Climate change 83.69 79.97 84.76 94.17
LUCC 16.31 20.03 15.24 5.83
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Tab.7  Annual contribution rate of future climate change and LUCC at four stations (%)
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