Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt

doi:10.1007/s11707-012-0327-x

Front Earth Sci

0, Vol.

Issue () : 177-187 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0327-x

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt

Christopher K. WRIGHT¹(

), Kirsten M. de BEURS², Geoffrey M. HENEBRY¹

1. South Dakota State University, Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), Brookings, South Dakota 57007, USA; 2. The University of Oklahoma, Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, Norman, OK 73019, USA

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Abstract

We present an approach to regional environmental monitoring in the Northern Eurasian grain belt combining time series analysis of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over the period 2001–2008 and land cover change (LCC) analysis of the 2001 and 2008 MODIS Global Land Cover product (MCD12Q1). NDVI trends were overwhelmingly negative across the grain belt with statistically significant (p≤0.05) positive trends covering only 1% of the land surface. LCC was dominated by transitions between three classes; cropland, grassland, and a mixed cropland/natural vegetation mosaic. Combining our analyses of NDVI trends and LCC, we found a pattern of agricultural abandonment (cropland to grassland) in the southern range of the grain belt coinciding with statistically significant (p≤0.05) negative NDVI trends and likely driven by regional drought. In the northern range of the grain belt we found an opposite tendency toward agricultural intensification; in this case, represented by LCC from cropland mosaic to pure cropland, and also associated with statistically significant (p≤0.05) negative NDVI trends. Relatively small clusters of statistically significant (p≤0.05) positive NDVI trends corresponding with both localized land abandonment and localized agricultural intensification show that land use decision making is not uniform across the region. Land surface change in the Northern Eurasian grain belt is part of a larger pattern of land cover land use change (LCLUC) in Eastern Europe, Russia, and former territories of the Soviet Union following realignment of socialist land tenure and agricultural markets. Here, we show that a combined analysis of LCC and NDVI trends provides a more complete picture of the complexities of LCLUC in the Northern Eurasian grain belt, involving both broader climatic forcing, and narrower anthropogenic impacts, than might be obtained from either analysis alone.

Keywords land cover change MODIS NDVI Northern Eurasian grain belt Kazakhstan Russia time series analysis Ukraine

Corresponding Author(s): WRIGHT Christopher K.,Email:Christopher.Wright@sdstate.edu

Issue Date: 05 June 2012

Cite this article:

Christopher K. WRIGHT,Kirsten M. de BEURS,Geoffrey M. HENEBRY. Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt[J]. Front Earth Sci, 0, (): 177-187.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-012-0327-x
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y0/V/I/177

Tab.1 Simplification of the IGBP LC classification scheme and net LCC from 2001 to 2008

Fig.1 NDVI trends over the period 2001 to 2008 across the Northern Eurasian grain belt. Non-significant (>0.05) SK tests appear white. Negative trends appear blue; positive trends appear red. Statistically significant (≤0.05) trends appear in lighter shades of blue and red; highly significant (≤0.01) trends appear in darker shades of blue and red. Inset A illustrates an area in the north-central grain belt with a spatially heterogeneous mixture of positive and negative NDVI trends. National boundaries appear as black lines

Fig.2 LCC rates from 2001 to 2008 for pixels identified as cropland, grassland, or mixed cropland/natural vegetation (crop/veg) in 2001 and conditional on NDVI trends. Black bars are LCC rates for all pixels in each LC class. White bars are LCC rates for pixels where NDVI trend tests were not significant (>0.05). Blue bars are LCC rates for pixels exhibiting negative, statistically significant (≤0.05) NDVI trends. Red bars are LCC rates for pixels exhibiting positive, statistically significant (≤0.05) NDVI trends. Chi-square tests of independence were highly significant (<0.01) for each of the three LC classes in three separate analyses

Fig.3 LC transitions from 2001 to 2008 starting from pixels classified as cropland, grassland, or mixed crop/natural vegetation (crop/veg) in 2001, conditional on NDVI trends. (a)-(c): relative LCC rates calculated with respect to marginal sums of 2001 land cover/NDVI trend combinations. (d)-(f): frequencies, in number of pixels, of specific land cover transitions. Grey bars are LCC rates (frequencies) for pixels where NDVI trend tests were not significant (>0.05). White bars are LCC rates (frequencies) for pixels exhibiting negative, statistically significant (≤0.05) NDVI trends. Black bars are LCC rates (frequencies) for pixels exhibiting positive, statistically significant (≤0.05) NDVI trends

Fig.4 Selected LCC from 2001 to 2008 among pixels exhibiting statistically significant (≤0.05) NDVI trends. See legend for LCC/NDVI trend combinations represented by different colors. Lettered boxes are boundaries of insets displayed at higher resolution in Fig. 5

Fig.5 Higher resolution examples of different LCC/NDVI trend combinations. Letters A-D reference the spatial location of each inset in Fig. 4. See legend for LCC/NDVI trend combinations represented by different colors

Fig.6 Partition of LC confidence values in the Northern Eurasian grain belt. Pixels with LC confidence>0.61 in 2001 and 2008 are gray; pixels with LC confidence≤0.61 in 2001 or 2008 are white. Polygons outline areas where LCC is indicated by the 2001 and 2008 MODIS GLC (irrespective of LC confidence) and NDVI trends are statistically significant (≤0.05)

Fig.7 LC transitions from 2001 to 2008 starting from pixels classified as cropland, grassland, or mixed crop/natural vegetation (crop/veg) in 2001, conditional on NDVI trends. Here LCC is restricted to pixels with LC confidence>0.61 in 2001 and 2008. For purposes of comparison to the full data set, -axes are scaled the same as in Fig. 3

Tab.2 Partition of LCC events by LC confidence. Values are the number of LCC pixels exhibiting nonsignificant or significant (≤0.05) negative or positive NDVI trends conditional on LC confidence. For each NDVI trend category, the percentage of LCC within each partition appears in the parentheses.

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