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Frontiers of Earth Science

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Front. Earth Sci.    2024, Vol. 18 Issue (1) : 1-16    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1006-1
Change of probability density distributions of summer temperatures in different climate zones
Xinqiu OUYANG1, Weilin LIAO1(), Ming LUO1,2
1. Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
2. Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
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Abstract

Extreme events have become increasingly frequent worldwide which are reflected in diverse changes in the shape of the temperature probability density function. However, few studies have paid attention to the heterogeneity of temperature at the scale of climate zones. Here, we use the ERA5-land data set to explore interdecadal summer temperature changes and the distribution across different climate zones from 1981 to 2019. Comparing the minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature of 1982–1991 and 2010–2019, the results imply that Tmin and Tmax in summer maintained a notable upward trend over the past 40 years, especially Tmin. The effects of a simple shift toward a warmer climate contributed most to all climate zones, while the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis had minor effects on extreme temperature except for tropics. Quantile analysis shows that the probability of extreme events in all climate zones is increasing in frequency and intensity, especially Tmin and Tmax in temperate climate zone. Understanding diverse reasons for climate change can assist us with taking different measures to address extreme climate in distinct climate zones.
Keywords Climate change      probability density function      extreme events     
Corresponding Author(s): Weilin LIAO   
Online First Date: 16 May 2023    Issue Date: 15 July 2024
 Cite this article:   
Xinqiu OUYANG,Weilin LIAO,Ming LUO. Change of probability density distributions of summer temperatures in different climate zones[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2024, 18(1): 1-16.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-022-1006-1
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2024/V18/I1/1
Fig.1  Distribution of climate zones and their corresponding regional averaged temperature in summer during 1981–2019. The red curves denote the averaged Tmax and the blue curves denote the averaged Tmin. The shadows denote temperature range within one standard deviation of each climate zone. 130 mm × 78.5 mm (600 dpi)
Fig.2  Temperature probability density distribution curves of global. The left panel is for daily Tmin and the right panel is for daily Tmax. μ denotes the mean, σ denotes the standard deviation, Sk denotes the skewness, K denotes the kurtosis. 125 mm × 44 mm (600 dpi)
Fig.3  The differences in moment statistics of (a) mean, (b) standard deviation, (c) skewness and (d) kurtosis between the two time periods of 1982–1991 and 2010–2019 for each grid box. The left panels for daily Tmin and the right panels for daily Tmax. Hatching indicates the difference between the two periods that are significant at the 90% confidence level. Two figures in each row share the same legend. 125 mm × 152 mm (600 dpi)
T Climate zone Δmean/°C Δstandard deviation/°C Δskewness Δkurtosis
Tmin Tropical + 0.436 + 0.012 − 0.039 + 0.323
Arid + 0.678 − 0.014 + 0.213 − 0.086
Temperate + 0.543 − 0.005 + 0.043 − 0.159
Cold + 0.850 − 0.111 + 0.033 − 0.041
Polar + 0.676 − 0.002 + 0.112 − 0.079
Tmax Tropical + 0.423 + 0.068 + 0.002 + 0.153
Arid + 0.680 − 0.002 + 0.063 + 0.263
Temperate + 0.535 + 0.006 + 0.197 − 0.900
Cold + 0.918 − 0.179 + 0.069 − 0.105
Polar + 0.682 − 0.022 + 0.184 − 0.111
Tab.1  The differences of order moments between the time period of 1982–1991 and 2010–2019 for Tmin and Tmax
Fig.4  Temperature probability density distribution of different climate zones. The left panels for daily Tmin and the right panels for daily Tmax. μ denotes the mean, σ denotes the standard deviation, Sk denotes the skewness, K denotes the kurtosis. Bold indicates the change is significant. The dashed lines represent the 95th percentiles distribution of based period. The purple shadow indicates the changing probability of extreme events caused by the rigid shift, the blue shadow indicates the negative effects and the purple in the box represents the positive effect caused by other parameters.
T Climate zone Threshold/(°C) 1982–1991 2010–2019 Probability changes
Tmin Tropical 22.86 4.89% 38.37% 33.48%
Arid 20.87 4.78% 33.48% 28.70%
Temperate 17.20 5.00% 40.98% 35.98%
Cold 13.77 4.67% 27.83% 23.16%
Polar 5.98 4.89% 31.30% 25.33%
Tmax Tropical 29.34 4.89% 16.30% 11.41%
Arid 30.78 4.89% 24.67% 19.78%
Temperate 24.39 4.89% 31.74% 26.85%
Cold 21.68 4.78% 28.15% 23.37%
Polar 13.03 4.89% 25.65% 20.76%
Tab.2  The probability changes of Tmin and Tmax extreme value in different climate zones
T Climate zone Probability changes Changes caused by the mean* Other parameters’ effects
Positive Negative
Tmin Tropical 33.48% 32.50% (97.07%) 3.80% − 2.82%
Arid 28.70% 29.57% (103.03%) 2.18% − 3.05%
Temperate 35.98% 35.00% (97.28%) 3.60% − 2.62%
Cold 23.16% 27.72% (119.69%) 0.22% − 4.78%
Polar 25.33% 23.70% (93.56%) 1.80% − 0.17%
Tmax Tropical 11.41% 8.48% (74.32%) 3.37% − 0.44%
Arid 19.78% 20.54% (103.84%) 2.18% − 2.94%
Temperate 26.85% 27.28% (101.60%) 3.91% − 4.34%
Cold 23.37% 26.74% (114.42%) 1.85% − 5.22%
Polar 20.76% 19.35% (93.21%) 2.18% − 0.77%
Tab.3  The probability changes decomposition in different climate zones
  Fig.A1 P value of Jarque-Bera test for raster distribution in 1982–1991 and 2010–2019. The left panels for daily Tmin and the right panels for daily Tmax. 122 mm × 80 mm (600 dpi)
  Fig.A2 The mMK test for global annual Tmin and Tmax in the past 40 years. The left panel is for daily Tmin and the right panel is for daily Tmax. 130 mm × 50 mm (600 dpi)
  Fig.A3 The differences in moment statistics of (a) mean, (b) standard deviation, (c) skewness and (d) kurtosis between the two time periods of 1982–1986 and 2015–2019 for each grid box. The left panels for daily Tmim and the right panels for daily Tmax. Hatching indicates the difference between the two periods that are significant at the 90% confidence level. Two figures in each row share the same legend. 140 mm × 170 mm (600 dpi)
T Climate zone Threshold/°C 1982–1991 2010–2019 Probability changes Changes caused by the mean
Tmin Tropical 22.87 4.57% 37.50% 32.93% 32.06%
Arid 20.80 6.20% 36.74% 30.54% 32.28%
Temperate 17.19 5.00% 41.63% 36.63% 35.11%
Cold 13.74 5.33% 29.24% 23.91% 27.93%
Polar 5.99 4.67% 29.67% 25.00% 23.16%
Tmax Tropical 29.40 3.70% 13.80% 10.10% 7.93%
Arid 30.73 5.76% 26.63% 20.87% 21.74%
Temperate 24.43 4.57% 29.35% 24.78% 24.45%
Cold 21.66 5.22% 29.35% 24.13% 26.63%
Polar 13.06 4.78% 24.78% 20.00% 18.48%
  Table A1 The probability changes of Tmin and Tmax extreme value in different climate zones
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