Dynamic COVID Zero Strategy triggered a significant increase of chlorine-based disinfectant consumption in Beijing

doi:10.1007/s11783-024-1857-7

Front. Environ. Sci. Eng.

2024, Vol. 18

Issue (8) : 97 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-024-1857-7

Dynamic COVID Zero Strategy triggered a significant increase of chlorine-based disinfectant consumption in Beijing

Xuhao Wang, Mai Su, Chunyan Wang, Yi Liu(

)

School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

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Abstract

● CBD consumption used during the Dynamic COVID Zero Strategy was quantified.

● An ALICE model to quantify weekly CBD consumption was proposed.

● The total CBD consumption could be reduced by 1.2% with a stricter strategy.

● A stricter and precise control strategy could reduce 16.9% and 37.7% CBD consumption within the close-off and lockdown area.

Chlorine-based disinfectants (CBDs) have been widely used to prevent and control the spread of the COVID-19, which may lead to the formation of carcinogenic hazards. In China, strict disinfection strategies by local governments/communities or volunteering by residents have been implemented to meet the Dynamic COVID Zero (DCZ) Strategy. However, the amount of CBDs used has not been estimated. The author proposed an urban-scale disinfectant consumption estimation (ALICE) model to quantify weekly CBD consumption. The results show that the CBD consumption for the urban region of Beijing during the DCZ strategy was 3704.0 t (0.43 kg/(cap∙yr)), equivalent to a monthly increase of 15 g/cap (70.5%) in CBD consumption compared with that in pre-pandemic. According to the scenario analysis, a stricter strategy with a shorter response time toward new cases will decrease the total CBD consumption by 1.2% compared with the baseline estimation. A more precise prevention strategy with a smaller delineation of risk area and a less stringent strategy with a longer response time will lower the total CBD consumption by 0.42% and 0.35%, respectively. Specifically, the more precise prevention strategy will reduce CBD consumption of close off and lockdown area (COLD area) by 16.9%, and the stricter strategy will reduce this consumption by 37.7%. This study highlights the impact of pandemic prevention and control strategies on chlorine-based disinfectant consumption and some implications for future environmental pollution and risk assessments.

Keywords COVID-19 Dynamic COVID Zero Strategy Disinfectants consumption Bottom-up approach Scenario analysis

Corresponding Author(s): Yi Liu

Issue Date: 11 July 2024

Cite this article:

Xuhao Wang,Mai Su,Chunyan Wang, et al. Dynamic COVID Zero Strategy triggered a significant increase of chlorine-based disinfectant consumption in Beijing[J]. Front. Environ. Sci. Eng., 2024, 18(8): 97.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-024-1857-7
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2024/V18/I8/97

Scenario	Description	Adjustments
Baseline	The original scenario where the DCZ strategy was fully implemented.	–
Precise control	A precise prevention and control scenario. All control areas in the baseline shift to the precaution area. Disinfection intensity of all risk levels remains. The lockdown area for residence is designated by unit instead of by building or community (National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, 2022).	For calculation of $C C L w$ :When $T i ∈ [R e s i d e n c e, H o t e l, S c h o o l],$ $C C L w = F S i × I C O 3 + F S i × (f i − 1) × I T i (L D)$
Stringent control	A more stringent prevention and control scenario compared with baseline. The detection of new cases and the implementation of the original strategy are assumed to be three days earlier than the baseline scenario, resulting in a decrease in total positive cases.	For model input of COVID-19 risk area:According to a previous study, in this scenario, new cases in each unit of time step decrease by 38.6% compared with baseline. Hence, the authors assume the scale of close-off and lockdown areas (abbr. COLD area) in each decrease by the same portion in each time step (Liang et al., 2023).
Relax control	A less stringent control and prevention scenario compared with baseline. The detection of new cases and the implementation of the original strategy are assumed to be three days later than the baseline, increasing total positive cases.	For model input of COVID-19 risk area:According to a previous study, in this scenario, new cases in each unit of time step increase by 58.3% compared with baseline. Hence, the authors assume the scale of the COLD area in each increases by the same portion in each time step (Liang et al., 2023).

Tab.1 Scenario settings summary

Fig.1 Estimation of timely and spatial variation of CBD consumption in the urban region of Beijing.

Fig.2 Comparison of the CBD consumption between baseline and three scenarios. (a) the total CBD consumption in the case area; (b) the CBD consumption in the COLD area; (c) the ratio of the COLD area to the total urban area for the baseline and three scenarios.

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