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Structural Changes in High Dimensional Factor Models
Jushan Bai,Xu Han
Front. Econ. China. 2016, 11 (1): 9-39.
https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-005-016-0003-9
This paper provides a survey on recent developments in structural changes for high dimensional factor models. Compared with conventional low-dimensional time series, structural changes in factor models are more complicated due to the unobservability of factors and factor loadings. The following topics are covered in this survey: the identification conditions for the structural changes in the factor loadings, different impacts of big and small breaks in factor models, tests for structural changes in the factor loadings of a specific variable, tests for structural changes in the factor loading matrix, joint tests for structural changes in the factor loadings and coefficients in factor-augmented regressions, tests for smooth changes in the factor loadings, estimation of break dates, and model selection in factor models with structural changes via the shrinkage method.
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The Dynamic Process of Economic Takeoff and Industrial Transformation
Ming-Jen Chang,Ping Wang,Danyang Xie
Front. Econ. China. 2016, 11 (1): 60-87.
https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-005-016-0005-3
This paper studies the patterns and key determinants of staged economic development. We construct a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model populated with one-period lived non-overlapping generations, featuring endogenous enhancement in modern technology and endogenous accumulation of labor skills and capital funds. We consider preference biases toward the traditional sector of necessities, capital barriers to the modern sector, and imperfect substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. By calibrating the model to fit historic U.S. development, we find that modern technologies, saving incentives and capital scales/barriers are the most important determinants of the takeoff time. By evaluating the process of economic development, we identify that what shapes saving incentives is most crucial for the speed of modernization after taking off. We further establish that labor, capital and output are most responsive to the initial state of modern technologies, but least responsive to skill endowments, along the dynamic transition path
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Applications of an IS-MP Model with Yield Curve
X. Henry Wang,Bill Z. Yang
Front. Econ. China. 2016, 11 (1): 142-155.
https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-005-016-0009-1
This paper presents an IS-MP model with the term structure of interest rates (i.e., the yield curve) and discusses some of its applications to recent macroeconomic activities and policy issues. Specifically, the model is employed to explain (1) why a steepening yield curve may signal the subsequent economic expansion, (2) why long-term zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) may not completely avoid recessions, but disables the yield curve from being inverted to signal the following economic recession, (3) how Operation Twist (OT) may help ease the recession, in particular, under ZIRP, and what limit it may face.
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