Modeling the rice phenology and production in China with SIMRIW: sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

doi:10.1007/s11707-014-0468-1

Front. Earth Sci.

2014, Vol. 8

Issue (4) : 505-511 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-014-0468-1

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Modeling the rice phenology and production in China with SIMRIW: sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

Shuai ZHANG¹,Fulu TAO^1,^*(

),Runhe SHI²

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

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Abstract

Crop models are robust tools for simulating the impact of climate change on rice development and production, but are usually designed for specific stations and varieties. This study focuses on a more adaptable model called Simulation Model for Rice-Weather Relations (SIMRIW). The model was calibrated and validated in major rice production regions over China, and the parameters that most affect the model’s output were determined in sensitivity analyses. These sensitive parameters were estimated in different ecological zones. The simulated results of single and double rice cropping systems in different ecological zones were then compared. The accuracy of SIMRIW was found to depend on a few crucial parameters. Using optimized parameters, SIMRIW properly simulated the rice phenology and yield in single and double cropping systems in different ecological zones. Some of the parameters were largely dependent on ecological zone and rice type, and may reflect the different climate conditions and rice varieties among ecological zones.

Keywords rice phenology parameter optimization SIMRIW simulation

Corresponding Author(s): Fulu TAO

Just Accepted Date: 20 October 2014 Online First Date: 17 November 2014 Issue Date: 13 January 2015

Cite this article:

Shuai ZHANG,Fulu TAO,Runhe SHI. Modeling the rice phenology and production in China with SIMRIW: sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2014, 8(4): 505-511.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-014-0468-1
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2014/V8/I4/505

Tab.1 The estimated parameters in SIMRIW

Fig.1 Sensitivity analysis of SIMRIW parameters for: (a) heading date calculation, (b) maturity date calculation, (c) yield calculation

Tab.2 SIMRIW parameters optimized in each ecological zone

Tab.3 SIMRIW validation results of heading date, maturity date and yield for various rice categories in different ecological zones

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