Evaluation on the applicability of ERA5 reanalysis dataset to tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai

doi:10.1007/s11707-022-0972-7

Front. Earth Sci.

2022, Vol. 16

Issue (4) : 1025-1039 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-0972-7

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Evaluation on the applicability of ERA5 reanalysis dataset to tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai

Zhihui HAN¹, Caijun YUE^2,¹(

), Changhai LIU³, Wen GU¹, Yuqi TANG¹, Yongyu LI⁴

¹. Shanghai Ecological Forecasting & Remote Sensing Center, Shanghai 200030, China
². Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center, Shanghai 200030, China
³. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO80305, USA
⁴. Shanghai Baoshan Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 201900, China

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Abstract

Based on the 16 historical tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Shanghai from 2007 to 2019, the suitability of ERA5 for studying TCs affecting Shanghai is systematically evaluated from the perspective of TC track, intensity, 10-m and upper-level wind, using TC best-track data of China Meteorological Administration and surface observations and sounding data. Corresponding to tropical storm (TS), strong tropical storm (STS), typhoon (TY), strong typhoon (STY) and super typhoon (SuperTY), the median TC track bias is 68.1, 52.9, 42.5, 25.4, and 18.2 km, respectively, the median maximum 10-m wind speed (VMAX_10m) bias is –3.7, –6.5, –11.4, –21.7, and –32.2 m·s^–1, respectively, and the median minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP_min) bias is 2.2, 5.6, 8.1, 28.2, and 48.7 hPa, respectively. With the increase of TC intensity, the median TC track bias decreases, while the median VMAX_10m and MSLP_min bias increase. In general, VMAX_10m in ERA5 is lower than observed, and MSLP_min is larger than observed. Under influence of TS, STS, TY and STY, the median 10-m wind speed (V_10m) bias in the city is 3.2, 4.2, 4.7, and 5.4 m·s^–1, respectively, and is 4.4–5.2 m·s^–1 near the east coast, respectively. V_10m is mostly biased high, showing an “M” type pattern with the distance between TC and Shanghai. The median 10 m wind direction (WD_10m) bias is in a range of –7º to +7º. The median upper-level wind speed (V_upper) bias decreases with height, with a maximum of ~5 m·s^–1 at 975 hPa. Below 900 hPa V_upper in ERA5 is typically larger than the radiosonde observation, and its mean bias error (MBE) increases with TC intensity. The upper-level wind direction (WD_upper) matches the sounding data well, with a maximum bias of a few degrees only. The results provide a reference for the application of ERA5 to coastal cities affected by TCs.

Keywords ERA5 reanalysis tropical cyclone wind field urban

Corresponding Author(s): Caijun YUE

Online First Date: 19 September 2022 Issue Date: 11 January 2023

Cite this article:

Zhihui HAN,Caijun YUE,Changhai LIU, et al. Evaluation on the applicability of ERA5 reanalysis dataset to tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2022, 16(4): 1025-1039.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-022-0972-7
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2022/V16/I4/1025

Fig.1 Location of AWSs, and radiosonde station in Shanghai. “+” symbols stand for ERA5 grid points.

Tab.1 Tropical cyclones (TCs) that affected Shanghai during 2007–2019. They were identified based on the maximum 10-min average wind speed at two or more AWSs, which is greater than or equal to 10.8 m·s^?1

Fig.2 Best-track of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Shanghai during 2007–2019 and three group division: landing in Shanghai (LD), moving northward across the east sea of Shanghai (NAE) and moving northward across the west land of Shanghai (NAW).

Fig.3 Median TC track bias (a) of ERA5 with respect to TC best-track data for TS, STS, TY, STY, and SuperTY, with the box indicating the interquartile range (IQR) and the 10th and 90th percentiles given by the whiskers, and TC track MBE for (b) TCs of LD, NAE and NAW, and (c) TCs over ocean and land.

Fig.4 Median TC VMAX_10m bias (a) of ERA5 with respect to TC best-track data for TS, STS, TY, STY, and SuperTY, with the box indicating the IQR and the 10th and 90th percentiles given by the whiskers, and VMAX_10m MBE for (b) TCs of LD, NAE, and NAW, and (c) TCs over ocean and land.

Fig.5 Median TC MSLP_min bias (a) of ERA5 with respect to TC best-track data for TS, STS, TY, STY, and SuperTY, with the box indicating the IQR and the 10th and 90th percentiles given by the whiskers, and MSLP_min MBE for (b) TCs of LD, NAE, and NAW, and (c) TCs over ocean and land.

Fig.6 Median V_10m bias relative to the AWS observations for the city, (a) and the nearshore region (b) under influence of TS, STS, TY, and STY, with the box indicating the IQR and the whiskers the 10th and 90th percentiles.

Fig.7 V_10m bias (dot) and Median V_10m bias (line) as a function of the distance between TC and Shanghai over city (left) and nearshore region (right) for all 16 TCs (a)–(b), LD TCs (c)–(d), NAE TCs (e)–(f) and NAW TCs (g)–(h). Negative and positive abscissa values correspond to TCs located to the south and north of Shanghai, respectively.

Fig.8 Median WD_10m bias relative to AWS observations for the city (a) and nearshore region (b) under the influence of TS, STS, TY, and STY, with the box indicating the IQR and the whiskers the 10th and 90th percentiles.

Fig.9 WD_10m bias (dot) and Median WD_10m bias (line) as a function of distance between TC and Shanghai over city (left) and nearshore region (right) for all 16 TCs (a)–(b), LD TCs (c)–(d), NAE TCs (e)–(f), and NAW TCs (g)–(h). Negative and positive abscissa values correspond to TCs located to the south and north of Shanghai, respectively.

Fig.10 WD_10m frequency and WD_10m MBE as a function of wind direction over the city (left) and nearshore region (right) for all 16 TCs (a)–(b), LD TCs (c)–(d), NAE TCs (e)–(f), and NAW TCs (g)–(h).

Fig.11 Median V_upper and WD_upper bias (a)–(b), V_upper and WD_upper MBE (c)–(d) under the influence of TS, STS, TY, and STY, and V_upper and WD_upper MBE variations as a function of distance between TC and Shanghai (e)–(f). Negative and positive abscissa values in (e)–(f) indicate that TC is located to the south and north of Shanghai, respectively.

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