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Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis
William B. Samuels, David E. Amstutz, Heather A. Crowley
Front Earth Sci. 2011, 5 (4): 350-362.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0198-6
The purpose of this project was to: 1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation, 2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model, 3) evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model, and 4) recommend future studies. Effects of climate change on winds, sea ice, ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using high-resolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings. The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios. Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind, sea ice cover and concentration, and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories. Because of the pace at which conditions are changing, BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.
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Water-related disasters: A review and commentary
Walter M. Grayman
Front Earth Sci. 2011, 5 (4): 371-377.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0205-y
The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature of water-related disasters, look at the trends in water-related disasters, categorize water-related disasters in several dimensions, provide insights on the impacts of such disasters and discuss the predictability of disasters. Disasters may be succinctly defined as natural or human events, usually unexpected, that result in significant impacts in terms of a variety of metrics. Metrics for evaluating the impacts of disasters include economic damage, environmental damage, fatalities, reconstruction cost, aesthetic damage, disruption of normal activities, destruction of irreplaceable objects, and long-term or permanent loss of species. Disasters may be categorized in terms of causes (natural events, human induced, or a combination). Water-related disasters may be further categorized as floods, storms, waves, slides, droughts, epidemics, contamination and climate change. The temporal and spatial scale of water-related disasters vary by many orders of magnitude ranging from seconds to centuries and from a few square kilometers to the entire earth.
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Rapid detection of bacteria in drinking water and water contamination case studies
Rolf A. Deininger, Jiyoung Lee, Robert M. Clark
Front Earth Sci. 2011, 5 (4): 378-389.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0206-x
Water systems are inherently vulnerable to physical, chemical and biologic threats that might compromise a systems’ ability to reliably deliver safe water. The ability of a water supply to provide water to its customers can be compromised by destroying or disrupting key physical elements of the water system. However, contamination is generally viewed as the most serious potential terrorist threat to water systems. Chemical or biologic agents could spread throughout a distribution system and result in sickness or death among the consumers and for some agents the presence of the contaminant might not be known until emergency rooms report an increase in patients with a particular set of symptoms. Even without serious health impacts, just the knowledge that a water system had been breached could seriously undermine consumer confidence in public water supplies. Therefore, the ability to rapidly detect contamination, especially microbiological contamination, is highly desirable. The authors summarize water contamination case studies and discuss a technique for identifying microbiological contamination based on ATP bioluminescence. This assay allows an estimation of bacterial populations within minutes and can be applied using a local platform. Previous ATP-based methods requires one hour, one liter of water, and has a sensitivity of 100000 cells for detection. The improved method discussed here is 100 times more sensitive, requires one-hundredth of the sample volume, and is over 10 times faster than standard method. T\his technique has a great deal of potential for application in situations in which a water system has been compromised.
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Protecting water and wastewater infrastructure from cyber attacks
Srinivas Panguluri, William Phillips, John Cusimano
Front Earth Sci. 2011, 5 (4): 406-413.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0199-5
Multiple organizations over the years have collected and analyzed data on cyber attacks and they all agree on one conclusion: cyber attacks are real and can cause significant damages. This paper presents some recent statistics on cyber attacks and resulting damages. Water and wastewater utilities must adopt countermeasures to prevent or minimize the damage in case of such attacks. Many unique challenges are faced by the water and wastewater industry while selecting and implementing security countermeasures; the key challenges are: 1) the increasing interconnection of their business and control system networks, 2) large variation of proprietary industrial control equipment utilized, 3) multitude of cross-sector cyber-security standards, and 4) the differences in the equipment vendor’s approaches to meet these security standards. The utilities can meet these challenges by voluntarily selecting and adopting security standards, conducting a gap analysis, performing vulnerability/risk analysis, and undertaking countermeasures that best meets their security and organizational requirements. Utilities should optimally utilize their limited resources to prepare and implement necessary programs that are designed to increase cyber-security over the years. Implementing cyber security does not necessarily have to be expensive, substantial improvements can be accomplished through policy, procedure, training and awareness. Utilities can also get creative and allocate more funding through annual budgets and reduce dependence upon capital improvement programs to achieve improvements in cyber-security.
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Monte Carlo simulation model for economic evaluation of rubble mound breakwater protection in Harbors
Richard M. Males, Jeffrey A. Melby
Front Earth Sci. 2011, 5 (4): 432-441.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0200-3
The US Army Corps of Engineers has a mission to conduct a wide array of programs in the arenas of water resources, including coastal protection. Coastal projects must be evaluated according to sound economic principles, and considerations of risk assessment and sea level change must be included in the analysis. Breakwaters are typically nearshore structures designed to reduce wave action in the lee of the structure, resulting in calmer waters within the protected area, with attendant benefits in terms of usability by navigation interests, shoreline protection, reduction of wave runup and onshore flooding, and protection of navigation channels from sedimentation and wave action. A common method of breakwater construction is the rubble mound breakwater, constructed in a trapezoidal cross section with gradually increasing stone sizes from the core out. Rubble mound breakwaters are subject to degradation from storms, particularly for antiquated designs with under-sized stones insufficient to protect against intense wave energy. Storm waves dislodge the stones, resulting in lowering of crest height and associated protective capability for wave reduction. This behavior happens over a long period of time, so a lifecycle model (that can analyze the damage progression over a period of years) is appropriate. Because storms are highly variable, a model that can support risk analysis is also needed. Economic impacts are determined by the nature of the wave climate in the protected area, and by the nature of the protected assets. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) modeling that incorporates engineering and economic impacts is a worthwhile method for handling the many complexities involved in real world problems. The Corps has developed and utilized a number of MCS models to compare project alternatives in terms of their costs and benefits. This paper describes one such model, Coastal Structure simulation (CSsim) that has been developed specifically for planning level analysis of breakwaters.
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