Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

doi:10.1007/s11707-011-0195-9

Front Earth Sci

2011, Vol. 5

Issue (4) : 400-405 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0195-9

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

Robert M. Clark¹(

), Robert C. Thurnau²

1. Environmental Engineering and Public Health Consultant, 9627 Lansford Drive, Cincinnati OH 45242, USA; 2. Project Manager and Principal Investigator, Eastern Research Group, Cincinnati OH 45242, USA

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Abstract

Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

Keywords condition assessment risk failure

Corresponding Author(s): Clark Robert M.,Email:rmclark@fuse.net

Issue Date: 05 December 2011

Cite this article:

Robert M. Clark,Robert C. Thurnau. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model[J]. Front Earth Sci, 2011, 5(4): 400-405.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-011-0195-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2011/V5/I4/400

Fig.1 Mean survival probabilities for 60.96 cm (24 inches) pipe-sections of ductile iron, cast iron, steel and PVC pipe sections

Fig.2 Expected survival probabilities for 30.48 cm (12 inches), 60.96 cm (24 inches) and 91.44 cm (36 inches) diameter ductile iron pipe-sections

Fig.3 Effect of frailty on mean survival rate for 60.96 cm (24 inches) PVC pipe-sections

Fig.4 Effect of frailty on mean survival rate for 60.96 cm (24 inches) ductile iron pipe-sections

Fig.5 Inspection benefit and inspection cost versus years for 60.96 cm (24 inches) diameter ductile iron pipe-run

Fig.6 Predicted break rate per mile with diameter

Fig.7 Predicted break rate per mile with age

Tab.1 Currently available inspection technologies

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